Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Mount Merapi continue with series of eruption


The meaning of Mount Merapi is Fire Mountain now days it is justifying their name with continuance of eruption for several weeks. Volcanic gases, bomb and bulging out of lava from the crater to the slopes has seen by the spectators on Wednesday, the blast was three time more intense than it was at 26th of October, the fiery explosion created new set of casualties. Earlier volcanologists thought that excess energy has released from the previous eruption and now chances of violent eruption is minimum however the Wednesday eruption once again proved that it is not easy to predict what is building up in magma chamber even the needle of the seismograph not giving any clue.

After the several week of devastating eruption that forced more than 70000 people to evacuate their place and get safe shelter under the rain of rocks and debris from the sky. The Mount Merapi has history of devastation in 1930 eruption 1300 people died and dozens of village affected, in 1994 eruption 60 people were killed and in current incident 38 people have died since eruption taken place.

Sunday, October 24, 2010

Golden cross ....a golden rule...












Stock markets got another bright sign here: both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 hit a golden cross the week ending 11th October for the first time in four years due to improvement in real economy although job condition is still gloomy but stocks touching year high due to the optimism of Federal reserve action.


A golden cross is an important technical indicator to ote the sentiments on the street when the .50-day moving average for an index crosses above the 200-day moving average.

The pattern occurs when prices over the shorter term are moving higher at a faster rate than prices over the longer-term. The Dow jone Industrial hits this benchmark on 1st of October.It's also a bullish sign for the future, as per the charts history.

Historically, the market has performed better following these patterns than if we look at any random one, three or six-month period.Specifically, the average six-month return of the S&P 500 Index following a golden cross was 3.9 percent from 1929 through 2010, while the S&P 500's average six-month return any other time was 3.1 percent, according to Bespoke's research. The research also shows the six-month average return following the golden cross is positive 63 percent of the time.

If we look at the S&P 500 data since 1972, the S&P 500 outperformed its average for the year as well, rising 11.9 percent on average in the year after a golden cross, versus 7.9 percent on average.

For the Nasdaq the six-month results have been positive 83 percent of time following the golden cross since the index began in 1971, with the Nasdaq averaging 8.7 percent in the six months after a golden cross, versus the typical average gain of 4.2 percent as per historical behavior.

If we look at the S&P 500 data since 1972, the S&P 500 outperformed its average for the year as well, rising 11.9 percentage point on an average in the year post the golden cross, versus 7.9 percent on an average.

The reverse of the golden cross is the death cross, which got real attention in july when index were close to it .It is treated as a bearish signal for the market. Since then, the S&P 500 has risen more than 15 percent, it's not unusual for the market to go up following a death cross.

Stock markets got another bright sign here: both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 hit a golden cross the week ending 11th October for the first time in four years due to improvement in real economy although job condition is still gloomy but stocks touching year high due to the optimism of Federal reserve action.
A golden cross is an important technical indicator to ote the sentiments on the street when the 50-day moving average for an index crosses above the 200-day moving average.

The pattern occurs when prices over the shorter term are moving higher at a faster rate than prices over the longer-term. The Dow jone Industrial hits this benchmark on 1st of October.It's also a bullish sign for the future, as per the charts history.

Historically, the market has performed better following these patterns than if we look at any random one, three or six-month period.Specifically, the average six-month return of the S&P 500 Index following a golden cross was 3.9 percent from 1929 through 2010, while the S&P 500's average six-month return any other time was 3.1 percent, according to Bespoke's research. The research also shows the six-month average return following the golden cross is positive 63 percent of the time.

If we look at the S&P 500 data since 1972, the S&P 500 outperformed its average for the year as well, rising 11.9 percent on average in the year after a golden cross, versus 7.9 percent on average.

For the Nasdaq the six-month results have been positive 83 percent of time following the golden cross since the index began in 1971, with the Nasdaq averaging 8.7 percent in the six months after a golden cross, versus the typical average gain of 4.2 percent as per historical behavior.

If we look at the S&P 500 data since 1972, the S&P 500 outperformed its average for the year as well, rising 11.9 percentage point on an average in the year post the golden cross, versus 7.9 percent on an average.

The reverse of the golden cross is the death cross, which got real attention in july when index were close to it .It is treated as a bearish signal for the market. Since then, the S&P 500 has risen more than 15 percent, it's not unusual for the market to go up following a death cross.