Tuesday, August 31, 2010

How to analyse risk involved in investment...









There are five main indicators of investment risk that relate to the analysis of stocks, bonds and mutual fund portfolios. They are alpha,beta,r-squired standard deviation and the Sharpe. These statistical measures are historical predictors of investment risk/volatility and are all major components of Modern portfolio theory (MPT). The MPT is a standard financial and academic methodology used for assessing the performance of equity, fixed-income and mutual fund investments by comparing them to market benchmarks.

All of these risk measurements are intended to help investors determine the reward parameters of their investments. In this article, we'll give a brief explanation of each of these commonly used indicators.

1. Alpha
Alpha is a measure of an investment's performance on a risk-adjusted basis. It takes the volatility (price risk) of a security or fund portfolio and compares its risk-adjusted performance to a benchmark index. The excess return of the investment relative to the return of the benchmark index is its "alpha".

Simply stated, alpha is often considered to represent the value that a portfolio manager adds or subtracts from a fund portfolio's return. A positive alpha of 1.0 means the fund has outperformed its benchmark index by 1%. Correspondingly, a similar negative alpha would indicate an underperformance of 1%. For investors, the more positive an alpha is, the better it is.

2. Beta
Beta, also known as the "beta coefficient," is a measure of the volatility,or systematic risk of a security or a portfolio in comparison to the market as a whole. Beta is calculated using regression analysis, and you can think of it as the tendency of an investment's return to respond to swings in the market. By definition, the market has a beta of 1.0. Individual security and portfolio values are measured according to how they deviate from the market.

A beta of 1.0 indicates that the investment's price will move in lock-step with the market. A beta of less than 1.0 indicates that the investment will be less volatile than the market, and, correspondingly, a beta of more than 1.0 indicates that the investment's price will be more volatile than the market. For example, if a fund portfolio's beta is 1.2, it's theoretically 20% more volatile than the market.

Conservative investors looking to preserve capital should focus on securities and fund portfolios with low betas, whereas those investors willing to take on more risk in search of higher returns should look for high beta investments.

3. R-Squared
R-Squared is a statistical measure that represents the percentage of a fund portfolio's or security's movements that can be explained by movements in a benchmark index. For fixed-income securities and their corresponding mutual funds, the benchmark is the US Treasury bills and, likewise with equities and equity funds, the benchmark is the S&P 500.

R-squared values range from 0 to 100. According to Morningstar a mutual fund with an R-squared value between 85 and 100 has a performance record that is closely correlated to the index. A fund rated 70 or less would not perform like the index.

Mutual fund investors should avoid actively managed funds with high R-squared ratios, which are generally criticized by analysts as being "closet" Index Fund In these cases, why pay the higher fees for so-called professional management when you can get the same or better results from an index fund.

4. Standard Deviation
Standard deviation measures the dispersion of data from its mean. In plain English, the more that data is spread apart, the higher the difference is from the norm. In finance, standard deviation is applied to the annual return on investment of an investment to measure its volatility (risk). A volatile stock would have a high standard deviation. With mutual funds, the standard deviation tells us how much the return on a fund is deviating from the expected returns based on its historical performance.

5. Sharpe Ratio
Developed by Nobel laureate economist William Sharpe, this ratio measures risk-adjusted performance. It is calculated by subtracting the risk free rate of return from the rate of return for an investment and dividing the result by the investment's standard deviation of its return.

The Sharpe ratio tells investors whether an investment's returns are due to smart investment decisions or the result of excess risk. This measurement is very useful because although one portfolio or security can reap higher returns than its peers, it is only a good investment if those higher returns do not come with too much additional risk. The greater an investment's Sharpe ratio, the better its risk-adjusted performance.

Conclusion
Many investors tend to focus exclusively on investment return, with little concern for investment risk. The five risk measures we have just discussed can provide some balance to the risk-return equation. The good news for investors is that these indicators are calculated for them and are available on several financial websites, as well as being incorporated into many investment research reports. As useful as these measurements are, keep in mind that when considering a stock, bond, or mutual fund investment, volatility risk is just one of the factors you should be considering that can affect the quality of an investment.

source:Investopedia.com

There are five main indicators of investment risk that relate to the analysis of stocks, bonds and mutual fund portfolios. They are alpha,beta,r-s standard deviation and the Sharpe. These statistical measures are historical predictors of investment risk/volatility and are all major components of Modern portfolio theory (MPT). The MPT is a standard financial and academic methodology used for assessing the performance of equity, fixed-income and mutual fund investments by comparing them to market benchmarks.

All of these risk measurements are intended to help investors determine the reward parameters of their investments. In this article, we'll give a brief explanation of each of these commonly used indicators.

1. Alpha
Alpha is a measure of an investment's performance on a risk-adjusted basis. It takes the volatility (price risk) of a security or fund portfolio and compares its risk-adjusted performance to a benchmark index. The excess return of the investment relative to the return of the benchmark index is its "alpha".

Simply stated, alpha is often considered to represent the value that a portfolio manager adds or subtracts from a fund portfolio's return. A positive alpha of 1.0 means the fund has outperformed its benchmark index by 1%. Correspondingly, a similar negative alpha would indicate an underperformance of 1%. For investors, the more positive an alpha is, the better it is.

2. Beta
Beta, also known as the "beta coefficient," is a measure of the volatility, or systematic risk, of a security or a portfolio in comparison to the market as a whole. Beta is calculated using regression analysis, and you can think of it as the tendency of an investment's return to respond to swings in the market. By definition, the market has a beta of 1.0. Individual security and portfolio values are measured according to how they deviate from the market.

A beta of 1.0 indicates that the investment's price will move in lock-step with the market. A beta of less than 1.0 indicates that the investment will be less volatile than the market, and, correspondingly, a beta of more than 1.0 indicates that the investment's price will be more volatile than the market. For example, if a fund portfolio's beta is 1.2, it's theoretically 20% more volatile than the market.

Conservative investors looking to preserve capital should focus on securities and fund portfolios with low betas, whereas those investors willing to take on more risk in search of higher returns should look for high beta investments.

3. R-Squared
R-Squared is a statistical measure that represents the percentage of a fund portfolio's or security's movements that can be explained by movements in a benchmark index. For fixed-income securities and their corresponding mutual funds, the benchmark is the U.S. Treasury Bill and, likewise with equities and equity funds, the benchmark is the S&P 500 Index.

R-squared values range from 0 to 100. According to Morningstar, a mutual fund with an R-squared value between 85 and 100 has a performance record that is closely correlated to the index. A fund rated 70 or less would not perform like the index.

Mutual fund investors should avoid actively managed funds with high R-squared ratios, which are generally criticized by analysts as being "closet" index funds. In these cases, why pay the higher fees for so-called professional management when you can get the same or better results from an index fund.

4. Standard Deviation
Standard deviation measures the dispersion of data from its mean. In plain English, the more that data is spread apart, the higher the difference is from the norm. In finance, standard deviation is applied to the annual rate of return of an investment to measure its volatility (risk). A volatile stock would have a high standard deviation. With mutual funds, the standard deviation tells us how much the return on a fund is deviating from the expected returns based on its historical performance.

5. Sharpe Ratio
Developed by Nobel laureate economist William Sharpe, this ratio measures risk-adjusted performance. It is calculated by subtracting the risk-free rate of return (U.S. Treasury Bond) from the rate of return for an investment and dividing the result by the investment's standard deviation of its return.

The Sharpe ratio tells investors whether an investment's returns are due to smart investment decisions or the result of excess risk. This measurement is very useful because although one portfolio or security can reap higher returns than its peers, it is only a good investment if those higher returns do not come with too much additional risk. The greater an investment's Sharpe ratio, the better its risk-adjusted performance.

Conclusion
Many investors tend to focus exclusively on investment return, with little concern for investment risk. The five risk measures we have just discussed can provide some balance to the risk-return equation. The good news for investors is that these indicators are calculated for them and are available on several financial websites, as well as being incorporated into many investment research reports. As useful as these measurements are, keep in mind that when considering a stock, bond, or mutual fund investment, volatility risk is just one of the factors you should be considering that can affect the quality of an investment

Monday, August 30, 2010

Less known investment option.

The Money Market

The money market is a subset of the fixed-income market. In the money market, participants borrow or lend for short period of time, usually up to a period of one year. These instruments are generally traded by the Government, financial institutions and large corporate houses. These securities are of very large denominations, very liquid, very safe but offer relatively low interest rates. The cost of trading in the money market (bid-ask spread) is relatively small due to the high liquidity and large size of the market. Since money market instruments are of high denominations they are generally beyond the reach of individual investors. However, individual investors can invest in the money markets through money-market mutual funds. We take a quick look at the various products available for trading in the money markets.

T-Bills

T-Bills or treasury bills are largely risk-free (guaranteed by the Government and hence carry only sovereign risk - risk that the government of a country or an agency backed by the government, will refuse to comply with the terms of a loan agreement), short-term, very liquid instruments that are issued by the central bank of a country. The maturity period for T-bills ranges from 3-12 months. T-bills are circulated both in primary as well as in secondary markets. T-bills are usually issued at a discount to the face value and the investor gets the face value upon maturity. The issue price (and thus rate of interest) of T-bills is generally decided at an auction, which individuals can also access. Once issued, T-bills are also traded in the secondary markets. In India, T-bills are issued by the Reserve Bank of India for maturities of 91-days, 182 days and 364 days. They are issued weekly (91-days maturity) and fortnightly (182-days and 364- days maturity).

Commercial Paper

Commercial papers (CP) are unsecured money market instruments issued in the form of apromissory note by large corporate houses in order to diversify their sources of short-term borrowings and to provide additional investment avenues to investors. Issuing companies are required to obtain investment-grade credit ratings from approved rating agencies and in some cases, these papers are also backed by a bank line of credit. CPs are also issued at a discount to their face value. In India, CPs can be issued by companies, primary dealers (PDs), satellite dealers (SD) and other large financial institutions, for maturities ranging from 15 days period to 1-year period from the date of issue. CP denominations can be Rs. 500,000 or multiples thereof. Further, CPs can be issued either in the form of a promissory note or in dematerialized form through any of the approved depositories.

Certificates of Deposit

A certificate of deposit (CD), is a term deposit with a bank with a specified interest rate. The duration is also pre-specified and the deposit cannot be withdrawn on demand. Unlike other bank term deposits, CDs are freely negotiable and may be issued in dematerialized form or as a Usance Promissory Note. CDs are rated (sometimes mandatory) by approved credit rating agencies and normally carry a higher return than the normal term deposits in banks (primarily due to a relatively large principal amount and the low cost of raising funds for banks). Normal term deposits are of smaller ticket-sizes and time period, have the flexibility of premature withdrawal and carry a lower interest rate than CDs. In many countries, the central bank provides insurance (e.g. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) in the U.S., and the Deposit Insurance and Credit Guarantee Corporation (DICGC) in India) to bank depositors up to a certain amount (Rs. 100000 in India). CDs are also treated as bank deposit for this purpose. In India, scheduled banks can issue CDs with maturity ranging from 7 days – 1 year and financial institutions can issue CDs with maturity ranging from 1 year – 3 years. CD are issued for denominations of Rs. 1,00,000 and in multiples thereof.

Sunday, August 29, 2010

Indian equity bumpy ride ahead....


















The Indian markets are ready to kiss the recent high, last week after touch the 31 month high sensex and nifty corrected to their immediate support level that stands between 5370 to 5390.The sell off triggered by the selling by FII on Thursday and Friday however the data was not so high because they sold of only 276.62 crore on Thursday and 108.16 crore in Friday. The second fear in the minds of market participants was the announcement of revised GDP data of US economy on Friday but fortunately which was surprised the US market to positive side by saying that US economy has grown in last quarter with 1.6%, earlier analysts were estimating that it will be less than 1.5%.

The third aspect is the statement of fed governor Ben Bernanke he is ready to support the economy when further negative sine will immerse ,above activity supported the US market and Dow closes up 164 point above 10105 and this is a good sign for Indian market. So the market is going to recover their losses in coming week and will scale new high.




Dollar index who is the indicator of behavior of US dollar against major currencies has retreated again and it reflecting that US dollar has started weakening again so this is good for equities. The coming equity rally is not going to be a strait northward move it will be bumpy ride from here onward. The chances of major correction up to 5100 is also looming by October end and once this leg of correction will be over then market will be ready for the sharp rally till year end.

Friday, August 27, 2010

Direct tax code 2011 ..old wine in new bottle















The Union Cabinet on Thursday approved new rules of direct tax code 2011. In the major changes government proposes to raise income tax exemption slab from 1.6 lakh to 2 lakh, leaving more tax free money in the hands of individuals, and a lower tax rate for companies as well.

The much hyped Direct Taxes Code, or DTC, Bill, which strive for to replace the nearly 50-year-old income tax law, is likely to be introduced in house on Monday and may then be discussed to a select committee of members of both houses of Parliament.

The basic exemption limit is proposed to be raised to 2 lakh from the previous 1.6 lakh and corporate tax rate for both domestic and foreign companies proposed is at 30%, finance minister Pranab Mukherjee told to media persons after the meeting of the Union Cabinet held on Thursday.

Senior citizens and women will enjoy a higher exemption as it was expected and the limits are up to 2.5 lakh. The companies will be happy because there will be no surcharge or cess on them, and bringing the down the corporate tax rate to 30% from present 34% it will left more cash for them.

The new code proposes three income tax slabs—income of up to 2-5 lakh will face 10%, 5-10 lakh will attract 20% and income more than 10 lakh will face tax at the rate of 30%. The housing loan exemption of 1.5 lakh would also be available to individual taxpayers on the interest component.

“The new changes in the tax rates, expected to come into effect from April 1, 2011, could lead to some loss in revenue and raise the government’s deficit however it will benefitted in longer term.

However, the government recommends raising the minimum alternate tax (MAT) on book profits to 20% from current 18%. The move will be a big blow for Reliance and a host of IT and infrastructure companies that pay MAT.

Overall the new proposal in direct tax code 2011 has nothing fundamental change they followed the set trend by previous government, no significant change in the tax slab, no alteration in long term and short term capital tax gain which was earlier expected to change it is simply old wine in new bottle.

Monday, August 23, 2010

Reliance Industries Ltd in....what to do??? management is in doubt...











Unlike others in the oil business,RIL the india largest private company isn’t running short of cash. The company is facing the issue how to use the cash to diversify the business and maintain growth in future.

In the last one year, RIL doubled refining capacities and added one of the world’s largest gas facilities.RIL worked three years to simultaneously implement two of India’s largest and most complex hydrocarbon projects the 580,000 bpd second refinery at Jamnagar and gas production from the company’s deep water oil fields in the Krishna-Godavari (KG) Basin.

The company deployed USD 12 billion and kept a few hundred variables on a tight leash that could have derailed the project. Goldman Sachs reckons over the next couple of years, RIL will generate USD 25 billion in excess cash.

Then there’s another Rs 9,500 crore it is sitting on after sale of treasury stock over the last six months and having 13 crore more treasury stock which will be sold before march 2011. What will he do with all this money?

From another perspective, margins in the core operation are down to half of what they used to be earlier. To that point, in spite of the doubling up of capacities, company’s earnings are stagnant. How can he therefore deploy this money in resourceful ways to ensure the growth engine doesn’t slow down?

“The low debt equity and increased pressure will led to the psychological pressures on Reliance to do something with the money,”

Attempts to tackle these questions led to answers like retail and real estate through the special economic zone route. By all accounts though, both of these projects where Ambani invested Rs. 500 crore and Rs. 2,000 crore, respectively, haven’t quite taken off.

The recent settlement between ambani brother has opened the new avenue for ultra-power project and telecom foray for the company so they can use their cash in effective manner to get the goal of growth.

All pointers are he’s selected to take his foot off both and focus on the core work of the company.

Unfortunately for RIL, soon after it pitched for LyondellBassel, Apollo Management, a private equity firm, got into the game and upped the ante by offering USD 15 billion. On his part, Ambani was unwilling to offer anything more than USD 14.5 billion.

So, just what are the options in front of RIL?

Option 1: Emphasis on becoming an integrated oil major and ultimately aim for breaking into a league now occupied by the six biggest in the world (derisively called Big Oil).

Though it prides itself on being integrated, RIL does not have the equilibrium of upstream oil exploration, production and refining capabilities the majors have.

There are big gaps in terms of exposure to key oil and gas basins, that are vital and need to be filled and Reliance is better positioned than any other Indian oil and gas company to get there

Option 2: Become bigger petrochemicals and refining player, with increased global company, through acquisitions and buy out and what they are doing it.

Let see what management is stock market is also watching and investors are aloso in doubt as the company is doubtful market is giving price to the above doubt and share price of the company is not doing anything since last year .




Sunday, August 22, 2010

INVESTOR PSYCHOLOGY..

Investor psychology:)>

ONE: Investors behavior is quite funny especial the shallow pocket and and small investor,they have the tendency to chase the mad rush when asset price is rising like any thing then they tend to buy the asset without taking care of the value of the asset.

TWO:They reluctant to book profit swiftly because greed comes in the way and this act is the missed opportunity and sometime led to loss.

THREE:They don't want to buy in the panic market because they feels it will go down further and this act led lo missed opportunity when market bounced.

FOUR: They always look at their sold asset and when it go up after sell they think and frustat

Derivatives Definition..

Derivative is a product whose value is derived from the value of one or more basic variables, called bases (underlying asset, index, or reference rate), in a contractual manner. The underlying asset can be equity, forex, commodity or any other asset. For example, wheat farmers may wish to sell their harvest at a future date to eliminate the risk of a change in prices by that date. Such a transaction is an example of a derivative. The price of this derivative is driven by the spot price of wheat which is the "underlying". In the Indian context the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1956 (SC(R)A) defines "derivative" to include-
1. A security derived from a debt instrument, share, loan whether secured or
unsecured, risk instrument or contract for differences or any other form of security.
2. A contract which derives its value from the prices, or index of prices, of underlying securities. . . Derivatives are securities under the SC(R)A and hence the trading of derivatives is . governed by . the regulatory framework under the SC(R)A.

what GE does...

General electric one of the greatest company known for their innovative approach to change the world around them. The core competency of the company is their approach to the future .I am quoting the statement of the CEO of the company.

At GE we ask, “Why predict the future when you can create it?” From our earliest days, our company has used the tools of research, combined with a little inspiration, to create the world of tomorrow. The legacy of GE’s ingenuity offers a rich history we are proud to share with the world.

Look!!!!! The GE approach to their business

Saturday, August 21, 2010

Gold is Hold....



Investor should keep their opinion on gold is on hold because gold is a good hold at this level.Globally gold as the asset class has shown their great interest by the investor in last few years, the renewed interest has been generated in gold due to recession and slowdown in economy. In the time of recession the equity has crashed significantly while the gold has hit their high the safe heaven buy by the investor ,hedge fund buy by to protect the investment and buying by central banks around the globe for the liquidity infusion in the system has led the buyout sentiments in the gold market. The gold has the tendency to outperform the all the asset class at the time of slowdown in economy it was also proved in the current slowdown. The global condition is yet to come out of wood so gold is hold and even a good buy at current level.

Hold in gold strategy will give good return in next six month.

Gold is hold

Gold is shining in the asset class the uncertainty in the economic recovery has bring safe haven buying in the gold .The scarce nature of the gold is playing advantage for this asset class,Gold in India inching towards 20000 and still it is looking hot and investment .Global demand has gone up because of safe heaven buying and bank buying.The trend is going to continue in near future so buy and hold the GOLD.

Types of Debt Funds


Gilt funds invest in only treasury bills and government securities,which do not have a credit risk (i.e. the risk that the issuer of the security defaults).

Diversified debt funds on the other hand, invest in a mix of government and non-government debt securities.

Junk bond schemes or high yield bond schemes invest in companies that are of poor credit quality. Such schemes operate on the premise that the attractive returns offered by the investee companies makes up for the losses arising out of a few companies defaulting.

Fixed maturity plans are a kind of debt fund where the investment portfolio is closely aligned to the maturity of the scheme. AMCs tend to structure the scheme around pre-identified investments. Further, like close-ended schemes, they do not accept moneys post-NFO. Thanks to these characteristics, the fund manager has little ongoing role in deciding on the investment options. As will be seen in Unit 8, such a portfolio construction gives more clarity to investors on the likely returns if they stay invested in the scheme until its maturity. This helps them compare the returns with alternative investments like bank deposits.

Floating rate funds invest largely in floating rate debt securities i.e. debt securities where the interest rate payable by the issuer changes in line with the market. For example, a debt security where interest payable is described as ‘5-year Government Security yield plus 1%’, will pay interest rate of 7%, when the 5- year Government Security yield is 6%; if 5-year Government Security yield goes down to 3%, then only 4% interest will be payable on that debt security. The NAVs of such schemes fluctuate lesser than debt funds that invest more in debt securities

offering a fixed rate of interest.

Liquid schemes or money market schemes are a variant of debt schemes that invest only in debt securities where the moneys will be repaid within 91-days. As will be seen later in this Work Book, these are widely recognized to be the lowest in risk among all kinds of mutual fund schemes.

Friday, August 20, 2010

Correction is Coming...


Indian equity market is their 31 month high backed by banking and financial services.The level of 5540 is the upper limit of channel and market,it will not be easy for the market to scale new high ,markets are looking light,and a small correction is around the corner.
The global market is not supporting ,the last two day of previous week American and European market is not giving enough signal from the buying side.
I recomed that the coming correction should be used as buying opportunity because second week of September will be good and we will new high .

RISK A MOST IMPORTANT GAME CHANGER


Risk is the universal truth in the investment and business world, birth of risk takes place in the arena of uncertainty which is stored in the future .In other way risk is the integral part of the growth so, if one has to grow they have to take calculated risk and here comes risk management.

Risk associated with Investment

Organizations can't plan for their finance without understanding investment risk. Many people when they hear about 'risk' think automatically about the chance of being defrauded or not getting all their money back. This 'capital' risk is important but isn't the only type.
Other types of risk involve uncertainty and unpredictability. When you make an investment, it can be difficult to say with any certainty what you'll get back when you finally cash it in.
Share prices fluctuate, interest rates vary, and inflation is a risk too. Just concentrating on capital risk and ignoring these other risks can mean you take too cautious an approach.
Understanding risk means identifying your own attitude to risk and identifying the different types of risk. Then you can pick up tips for minimizing the chances of things going wrong.

Different types of risk:

Capital risk
Theoretically speaking, every investment carries at least some risk that you won't get back all the capital you invested. This is known as capital risk. However in practice several products are so safe that it's virtually certain you'll get what you were promised. For example, National Savings Certificates, Post office deposits and government bonds (gilts) are backed by the government.
But other asset class like equity corporate deposits other debt investments, Real states investments holds significant capital risk.
Inflation risk
Inflation risk is the danger of rising prices eroding the buying power of your money. This risk is greatest if you invest in savings accounts and bank fixed deposits.
Sometime many savings accounts don't pay interest equal to the rate of inflation after tax, so even if one doesn't spend any of the interest, the 'real' value of your savings falls. If you spend the interest, the problem is even greater.
Shortfall risk
Shortfall risk means failing to reach your investment goal because the return on your investments is too low. For example, say you want to save Rs20,000 and can get a return of 3.4% after tax from a savings account. This means you'd have to save Rs140 a month to reach your target. If you can only save Rs100 a month, you'd need a return of 6.9%.
To reduce shortfall risk, you need to invest at least some of your money for a higher return but this may involve taking some capital risk.
Share-based risk

Specific risk
This is the risk that the company one have invested in performs badly. Some companies will fluctuate more than others. First time investors should be especially concerned to keep this type of risk to a minimum.
This could be done by building up less risky assets first - so if you buy share-based investments they'll have less effect on your overall portfolio. You can also reduce your specific risk by investing across a range of shares. This way, if one of them goes bust, or falls heavily, the overall effect on your portfolio is less.
The best and cheapest way to spread your risk is to invest in pooled investments like Mutual fund, investment trusts. They are called pooled investments because you pool your money with other savers to buy a wide range of shares.
Market risk
This is the risk of a fall in the particular country's stock market where your money is invested. When a market falls you will usually find that most shares are dragged down with it. Some fall by more than the average, some by less, but few will buck the overall trend.
A good way of avoiding market risk is to invest your money gradually, for example through a monthly investment scheme as this will smooth out big variations in the price.
You can reduce market risk by investing in many stock markets around the world. This works because not all stock markets will rise and fall together by the same amount, so if one crashes, you should be able to limit your losses because the others won't have fallen as much.

Currency risk
If your money is invested in stock markets outside the country, then one will face currency risk. Wherever money is invested, it will have to be converted into currency of host nation, when one want it back. As a result, movements in the exchange rate will affect the value of your investment - this can work in your favor or against the investor. When FII were pumping the money in Indian market that time rupee were quoting at 39 but when they were selling from the country the rupee close to 52 look the risk involve with the currency.
one can limit currency risk by diversifying, for example through an international fund that spreads its investments around the globe. Alternatively, one can avoid currency risk by sticking to the one nation but this increases your market risk.

Fund Manager risk
There is a huge variation in the investment performance of individual fund managers of unit and investment trusts. It would be great if we could pick the winners in advance, but over the long-term bet very few managers manage to beat the stock market.
Investing through an index-tracking fund should remove the risk of picking a bad manager. Index trackers just try to follow their chosen index, such as the NIFTY All Share or the BSE 100. Index , MIDCAP Index trackers tend to have lower charges than funds where managers try to beat the market

Measuring and Managing Investment Risk:


We tend to think of "risk" in principally negative terms, as something to be avoided or a threat that we hope won't materialize. In the investment world, however, risk is inseparable from recital and, rather than being desirable or undesirable, is simply necessary. Understanding risk is one of the most important parts of a financial learning.
Risk - fine, dire and essential:
A general explanation for investment risk is deviation from an expected outcome. We can express this in absolute terms or relative to something else like a market benchmark. That deviation can be positive or negative, and relates to the idea of "no pain, no gain" - to achieve higher returns in the long run you have to accept more short-term volatility. How much volatility depends on risk tolerance of the individual - an expression of the capacity to assume volatility based on specific financial circumstance and the inclination to do so, taking into account your psychological comfort with uncertainty and the possibility of incurring large short-term losses.


Absolute Measures of Risk:
One of the most commonly used absolute risk metrics is standard deviation, a statistical measure of dispersion around a central tendency. I am taking the example of most stable and mature equity index of the globe for the explanation , during a 15-year period from August 1, 1992, to July 31, 2007, the average annualized total return of the S&P 500 Stock Index was 10.7%. This number tells you what happened for the whole period, but it doesn't say what happened along the way.

The average standard deviation of the S&P 500 for that same period was 13.5%. Statistical theory tells us that in normal distributions (the familiar bell-shaped curve) any given outcome should fall within one standard deviation of the mean about 67% of the time and within two standard deviations about 95% of the time. Thus, an S&P 500 investor could expect the return at any given point during this time to be 10.7% +/- 13.5% just under 70% of the time and +/- 27.0% 95% of the time. The Indian market has shown same trend since July 1990 till latest quotes in 2009.




Risk and Psychology

While that outcome may be helpful, it does not fully address an investor's risk concerns. The field of behavioral finance has contributed an important element to the risk equation, demonstrating asymmetry between how people view gains and losses. In the language of prospect theory, an area of behavioral finance introduced by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in 1979, investors exhibit loss aversion - they put more weight on the pain associated with a loss than the good feeling associated with a gain.


Thus, what investors really want to know is not just how much an asset deviates from its expected outcome, but how bad things look way down on the left-hand tail of the distribution curve. Value at risk (VAR)attempts to provide an answer to this question. The idea behind VAR is to quantify how bad a loss on an investment could be with a given level of confidence over a defined period of time. For example, the following statement would be an example of VAR: "With about a 95% level of confidence, the most you stand to lose on this $1,000 investment over a two-year time horizon is $200." The confidence level is a probability statement based on the statistical characteristics of the investment and the shape of its distribution curve.


Of course, even a measure like VAR doesn't guarantee that things won't be worse. Spectacular debacles like hedge fund Long Term Capital Management in 1998 remind us that so-called "outlier events" may occur. After all, 95% confidence allows that 5% of the time results may be much worse than what VAR calculates. In the case of LTCM, the outlier event was the Russian government's default on its outstanding sovereign debt obligations, an event that caused the hedge fund's performance to be much worse than its expected value at risk.

Another risk measure tilting to behavioral tendencies is drawdown, which refers to any period during which an asset's return is negative relative to a previous high mark. In measuring drawdown, we attempt to address three things: the magnitude of each negative period (how bad), the duration of each (how long) and the frequency (how many times).


Risk: The Passive and the Active

In addition to wanting to know, for example, whether a mutual fund beat the NIFTY and other indexes we also want to know how comparatively risky it was. One measure for this is beta, based on the statistical property of covariance and also called "market risk", "systematic risk", or "non-diversifiable risk". A beta greater than 1 indicates more risk than the market and vice versa.

Beta helps us to understand the concepts of passive and active risk. The graph below shows a time series of returns (each data point labeled "+") for a particular portfolio R(p) versus the market return R(m). The returns are cash-adjusted, so the point at which the x and y axes intersect is the cash-equivalent return. Drawing a line of best fit through the data points allows us to quantify the passive, or beta, risk and the active risk, which we refer to as alpha.

The gradient of the line is its beta. For example, a gradient of 1.0 indicates that for every unit increase of market return, the portfolio return also increases by one unit. A manager employing a passive management strategy can attempt to increase the portfolio return by taking on more market risk (i.e. a beta greater than 1) or alternatively decrease portfolio risk (and return) by reducing the portfolio beta below

1. Influence of Other Factors

If the level of market or systematic risk were the only influencing factor, then a portfolio's return would always be equal to the beta-adjusted market return. Of course, this is not the case - returns vary as a result of a number of factors unrelated to market risk. Investment managers who follow an active strategy take on other risks to achieve excess returns over the market's performance. Active strategies include stock, sector or country selection, fundamental analysis and charting.


Fund managers are on the hunt for alpha - the measure of excess return. In our diagram example above, alpha is the amount of portfolio return not explained by beta, represented as the distance between the intersection of the x and y axes and the y axis intercept, which can be positive or negative. In their quest for excess returns, active managers expose investors to alpha risk - the risk that their bets will prove negative rather than positive. For example, a manager may think that the energy sector will outperform the S&P 500 and increase her portfolio's weighting in this sector. If unexpected economic developments cause energy stocks to sharply decline, the manager will likely underperform the benchmark - an example of alpha risk.


A note of caution is in order when analyzing the significance of alpha and beta. There must be some evidence of a linear pattern between the portfolio returns and those of the market, or a reasonably inclusive line of best fit. If the data points are randomly dispersed, then the line of best fit will have little predictive ability and the results for alpha and beta will be statistically insignificant. A general rule is that an r-squared of 0.70 or higher (1.0 being perfect correlation) between the portfolio and the market reasonably validates the significance of alpha, beta and other relative measures.


The Price of Risk

There is economic cost to the decision between passive and active risk. In general, the more active the investment strategy (the more alpha a fund manager seeks to generate) the more an investor will need to pay for exposure to that strategy. It helps to think in terms of a spectrum from a purely passive approach. For example, a buy and hold investment into a proxy for the C&X NIFTY or NIFTYJr - all the way to a highly active approach such as a hedge fund employing complex trading strategies involving high capital commitments and transaction costs. For a purely passive vehicle like an index fund or an exchange trade fund ETF) you might pay 15-20basis points in annual management fees, while for a high-octane hedge fund you would need to shell out 200 basis points in annual fees plus give 20% of the profits back to the manager. In between these two confines lie alternative approaches combining active and passive risk management.


The discrepancy in pricing between passive and active strategies (or beta risk and alpha risk respectively) encourages many investors to try and separate these risks: i.e. to pay lower fees for the beta risk assumed and concentrates their more expensive exposures to specifically defined alpha opportunities. This is popularly known as portable alpha, the idea that the alpha component of a total return is separate from the beta component.


For example a fund manager may claim to have an active sector rotation strategy for beating the S&P 500 and show as evidence a track record of beating the index by 1.5% on an average annualized basis. To the investor, that 1.5% of excess return is the manager's value - the alpha - and the investor is willing to pay higher fees to obtain it. The rest of the total return, what the S&P 500 itself earned, arguably has nothing to do with the manager's unique ability, so why pay the same fee? Portable alpha strategies use derivatives and other tools to refine the means by which they obtain and pay for the alpha and beta components of their exposure.




Conclusions

Risk is integral part of return. Every investment involves some amount of risk, which can be very close to zero in the case of a Government security or very high for something such as concentrated exposure to African equities or real estate in Argentina the spatiotemporal variation plays important role in risk. Risk is quantifiable both in absolute and in relative terms. A solid understanding of risk in its different forms can help investors to better understand the opportunities, trade-offs and costs involved with different investment approaches.




Thursday, August 19, 2010

Commodity Market in India

Organized commodity derivatives in India has their old history, it was started in 1875, barely about ten year after they started in Chicago. However, many feared that derivatives fuelled superfluous speculation and were detrimental to the healthy functioning of the markets for the underlying commodities. As a result, after independence, commodity options trading and cash settlement of commodity futures were banned in 1952. A further gust came in 1960s when, following several years of severe draughts that forced many farmers to default on forward contracts and even many committed suicides, forward trading was banned in many commodities considered primary or essential. Consequently, the commodities derivative markets dismantled and remained dormant for about four decades until the new millennium when the Government, in a complete change in policy, started actively encouraging the commodity derivatives market. Since 2002, the commodities futures market in India has experienced an unprecedented boom in terms of the number of modern exchanges, number of commodities allowed for derivatives trading as well as the value of futures trading in commodities.
Revolution in commodity trading:
After the Indian economy embarked upon the process of liberalization and globalization in 1990, the Government formed a Committee headed by Prof. K.N. Kabra in 1993 to examine the role of futures trading. The Committee recommended allowing futures trading in17commodity groups. It also recommended strengthening of the Forward Markets Commission, and certain amendments to Forward Contracts (Regulation) Act 1952, particularly allowing options trading in goods and registration of brokers with Forward Markets Commission. The Government accepted most of these recommendations and futures trading were permitted in all recommended commodities.
Commodity futures trading in India remained in a state of hibernation for nearly four decades, essentially due to suspicions about the benefits of derivatives. Lastly a realization that derivatives do perform a role in risk management led the government to change its stance. The policy changes favoring commodity derivatives were also facilitated by the enhanced role assigned to free market forces under the new liberalization policy of the Government. Indeed, it was a timely decision too, since internationally the commodity cycle is on the upswing and the next decade is being touted as the decade of commodities.

SCOPE OF COMMODITY FUTURE IN INDIA:

India is amongst the top-5 producers of most of the commodities, in addition to being a major consumer due to their consumption storey. Agriculture contributes about 22% to the GDP of the Indian economy. It employees around 57% of the labor force on a total of 163 million hectares of land. Agriculture sector is an important factor in achieving a GDP growth of 8-10%. All this indicates that India can be promoted as a major center for trading of commodity derivatives. It is unfortunate that the policies of FMC during the most of 1950s to 1980s suppressed the very markets it was supposed to encourage and nurture to grow with times. It was a mistake other emerging economies of the world would want to avoid. However, it is not in India alone that derivatives were suspected of creating too much speculation that would be to the detriment of the healthy growth of the markets and the farmers. Such suspicions might normally arise due to a misunderstanding of the characteristics and role of derivative product.
It is important to understand why commodity derivatives are required and the role they can play in risk management. It is common knowledge that prices of commodities, metals, shares and currencies fluctuate over time. The possibility of adverse price changes in future creates risk for businesses. Derivatives are used to reduce or eliminate price risk arising from unforeseen price changes. A derivative is a financial contract whose price depends on, or is derived from, the price of another asset.
Two important derivatives are futures and options.
(i) Commodity Futures Contracts: A futures contract is an agreement for buying or selling a commodity for a predetermined delivery price at a specific future time. Futures are standardized contracts that are traded on organized futures exchanges that ensure performance of the contracts and thus remove the default risk. The commodity futures have existed since the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT, www.cbot.com) was established in 1848 to bring farmers and merchants together. The major function of futures markets is to transfer price risk from hedgers to speculators. For example, suppose a farmer is expecting his crop of wheat to be ready in two months time, but is worried that the price of wheat may decline in this period. In order to minimize his risk, he can enter into a futures contract to sell his crop in two months' time at a price determined now. This way he is able to hedge his risk arising from a possible adverse change in the price of his commodity.

(ii) Commodity Options contracts: Like futures, options are also financial instruments used for hedging and speculation. The commodity option holder has the right, but not the obligation, to buy (or sell) a specific quantity of a commodity at a specified price on or before a specified date. Option contracts involve two parties - the seller of the option writes the option in favor of the buyer (holder) who pays a certain premium to the seller as a price for the option. There are two types of commodity options: a 'call' option gives the holder a right to buy a commodity at an agreed price, while a 'put' option gives the holder a right to sell a commodity at an agreed price on or before a specified date (called expiry date). The option holder will exercise the option only if it is beneficial to him; otherwise he will let the option lapse. For example, suppose a farmer buys a put option to sell 100 Quintals of wheat at a price of $25 per quintal and pays a 'premium' of $0.5 per quintal (or a total of $50). If the price of wheat declines to say $20 before expiry, the farmer will exercise his option and sell his wheat at the agreed price of $25 per quintal. However, if the market price of wheat increases to say $30 per quintal, it would be advantageous for the farmer to sell it directly in the open market at the spot price, rather than exercise his option to sell at $25 per quintal.
Futures and options trading therefore helps in hedging the price risk and also provide investment opportunity to speculators who are willing to assume risk for a possible return. Further, futures trading and the ensuing discovery of price can help farmers in deciding which crops to grow. They can also help in building a competitive edge and enable businesses to smoothen their earnings because none hedging of the risk would increase the volatility of their quarterly earnings. Thus futures and options markets perform important functions that cannot be ignored in modern business environment. At the same time, it is true that too much speculative activity in essential commodities would destabilize the markets and therefore, these markets are normally regulated as per the laws of the country.

STRUCTUE OF COMODITY MARKET IN INDIA :
Forward Market Commission (FMC)
FMC is the apex organization to take care and act as the watchdog for the commodity markets in India. It was set up in 1953 under the Forward Contracts (Regulation) Act, 1952 and Managed by Ministry of Consumer Affairs and Public Distribution, Govt. of India.. Currently Shri B.C.Khatua, is the Chairman of FMC
Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX)
Promoted by Financial Technologies (India) Ltd. And various PSU Banks It commenced its operations on 10th November 2003 Headquartered in Mumbai, MCX is led by an expert management team 62 commodities; volumes 5893 crores per day Over 3000 clients trading through more than 500 brokers daily Expected turnover-50000 crores a day by 2012 Gold, Silver, Crude & Mentha oil contributing to turnover
National Commodity Exchange (NCDX)
Promoters - ICICI Bank, LIC, NABARD, NSE Punjab National Bank (PNB), CRISIL Ltd, Indian Farmers Fertilizer Cooperative Limited (IFFCO) and Canara Bank It commenced its operations on December 15, 2003.NCDEX is located in Mumbai and offers facilities through more than 390 centers in India.55 commodities; volumes 3296 crores per day Chana, Urad, Guar & Silver contributing to turnover
NMCE, Ahmadabad
National Board of Trade, Indore (NBOT) :
It incorporated on July 30,1999 to offer integrated, state-of-the-art commodity futures exchange. It was incorporated to offer transparent and efficient trading platform to various market intermediaries in the commodity futures trade. Today NBOT is one of the fastest growing commodity exchanges recognized by the Government of India under the aegis of the Forward Markets Commission. Within a short span of seven years, NBOT has carved out a niche for itself in the commodities market. With a humble beginning of trading in February 2000 its average daily volume has reached a staggering 60,000 MTs (approx.) in terms of Soya oil.
National Multi-Commodity Exchange(NMCE):
National Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. (NMCE) was promoted by commodity-relevant public institutions, viz., Central Warehousing Corporation (CWC), National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India (NAFED), Gujarat Agro-Industries Corporation Limited (GAICL), Gujarat State Agricultural Marketing Board (GSAMB), National Institute of Agricultural Marketing (NIAM), and Neptune Overseas Limited (NOL). While various integral aspects of commodity economy, viz., warehousing, cooperatives, private and public sector marketing of agricultural commodities, research and training were adequately addressed in structuring the Exchange, finance was still a vital missing link. Punjab National Bank (PNB) took equity of the Exchange to establish that linkage. Even today, NMCE is the only Exchange in India to have such investment and technical support from the commodity relevant institutions
Except the above installation there are 22 other exchanges operates in India who provides trading of commodities however more than 90% trade executes in above mentioned exchange.
Conclusion:
Commodity trading in India was started with the objective to safeguard the farmers and provide the hedge to the industry and to discover the price of the commodity however due to lack of awareness and inadequate infrastructure the light of its benefit are miles away from the farmers and so it has became the traders and speculators paradise .Indian farmers and small traders are not so capable to understand the mathematics of commodity trading and the operational complexity involved in trading .The use of modern communication devise make them more difficult to handle .The commodity market requires more reform and more participation from the farmer and trader to get its real goal.


Pankaj Kumar

Pharma Update

PHARMA UPDATE
Sanofi-Aventis Scans India for Acquisitions"; "Glaxo Eyes Piramal, Dr. Reddy's Labs"; "MNCs Eye Indian Pharma": If these and other recent headlines are any indication, India's pharmaceutical companies are in play for multinational suitors. According to some industry observers, more acquisitions are almost certain once valuations improve -- whether for diversification, exposure to emerging markets or other purposes.

Pharmaceutical, health care and biotechnology was one of the busiest sectors on India's Deal Street in 2008. At US$5.57 billion, it was second in terms of total value, marginally below telecommunications, which had total transactions worth US$5.78 billion. The pharma sector had 57 deals, second only to the 102 deals in the IT and IT services sector.
In June 2008, the acquisition of Ranbaxy Laboratories -- India's biggest drugmaker at the time -- by Japanese firm Daiichi Sankyo set the ball rolling. At US$4.6 billion, it was the largest of India's deals for the year. Since then, the Dabur Group, which operates in the wellness space, sold a 73% stake in its Dabur Pharma prescription business to Singapore-based Fresenius Kabi for US$200 million. Perrigo, an over-the-counter firm based in the U.S., picked up an 85% stake in Mumbai-based Vedants Drugs & Fine Chemicals for US$12 million. Wockhardt, based in Mumbai, hawked its nutritional supplement brands Farex, Protinex and Dexolac to U.S.-based Abbott Laboratories for US$130 million and its animal health division to Vetoquinol of France for US$40 million. And Sanofi-Aventis of France acquired Hyderabad-based vaccine major Shantha Biotechnics for nearly US$800 million.

The Sanofi-Aventis strategy in India in the past has been around a smaller number of products. The company's management in India is now focusing more on the base business and has accelerated their growth rate from about 7% per year to around 15% to 16%. Vaccine is clearly an area where they were in deficit -- pretty much everybody is. And that is why Shantha was so important. The company is still on the takeover trail. There will be more shopping on the horizon. The objective is to build the company's vaccine, biotechnology and non-prescription-medicine businesses, as well as expand in emerging markets.
A team from Sanofi, which had US$42 billion in revenues last year, visited India recently and held talks with Mumbai-based Piramal Healthcare and the privately held, Bangalore-based Micro Labs. GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), which had US$45 billion in revenues, is widely reported to be looking to acquire a 5% stake in Dr. Reddy's Laboratories; it already has a marketing deal in place. Pfizer, meanwhile, has struck alliances with Aurobindo Pharma and Claris Lifesciences. A lot of other proposals of the same kind are floating around, some of which involve second-tier companies, including Torrent Pharmaceuticals, Unichem Laboratories, Shasun Chemicals and Orchid Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals. The promoter families of quite a few Indian drug companies are open to the idea of selling to a multinational company but are waiting for valuations to improve. Some of the big deals being spoken about haven't gone through because of valuations.

Four Important Trends

Why has Indian pharma come under the takeover lens? Four important global trends are driving MNCs' strategies:
First is cost optimization, for which you need to create a flexible business model.
The second is getting into businesses that are different -- vaccines, for instance.
The third is the pursuit of profitable growth, for which you need to focus on emerging markets, which give you good margins.
Finally there is the move into generics, for which many companies have to look at inorganic growth."With growth expected to taper off in the U.S. and other developed countries, emerging economies like India are expected to drive future expansion. The Indian pharmaceutical market had estimated revenues of US$17 billion in fiscal 2008. The domestic formulation business, which was US$8 billion, is estimated to grow at over 12% annually to reach US$14 billion by fiscal 2013.
The key growth drivers in the domestic market, are increasing per-capita income, growing insurance penetration, better health awareness, higher government expenditure, adherence to IPR (intellectual property rights) norms, and shifts in disease profiles. Also, the country has established itself as a leading player in generics manufacturing as well as contract research and manufacturing. This is of interest to MNCs, which are currently facing a relatively low pipeline of new innovator drugs. Increased pressure from governments in several developed countries to reduce health care costs has also forced large pharma companies to look at enhancing their generics portfolio.

Getting access to India's domestic market and adding generics to portfolios are two primary drivers behind the increasing number of takeovers by MNCs in the pharma sector. Until recently, India was not an important market for big pharma companies because it accounted for only a very small percentage of their global revenues. But over the next 10 years, India is expected to become a multibillion-dollar market, among the top 10 markets globally. Indeed, Consumer spending on health care in India increased from 4% of gross domestic product in 1995 to 7% in 2007, and is expected to rise to 13% by 2015. However, tapping the Indian market will require a tailored approach. Cost efficiencies are important, price points are important. There are lots of poor people and different disease profiles.

On the generic front, earlier, generics used to be the lower end of the game, the bottom of the barrel. But those days have changed. Now there is a big drive for generic substitution wherever possible, because the prices collapse by 90%. All the big pharma players want to take a bigger role in generics. They realize that having generics in their portfolio gives them an extra arrow in the quiver while dealing with policymakers globally. One way is to acquire Indian drug-makers that have proven skills in manufacturing can keep their operations lean and have cost-effective generic development methods.
Expansion by global pharma companies into emerging markets like India becomes imperative as about US$103 billion worth of patented drugs will go off patent in the next few years. This will further hit the already sagging fortunes of such companies. Thus they are trying to augment their revenues by acquiring or aligning with companies in the generics business. The acquisition of Ranbaxy is an apt example in this context.

The industry itself isn't necessarily looking to sell out. The Indian Pharmaceutical Alliance, a lobby of 12 top home-grown drug-makers, was seeking the government's help to prevent acquisitions by foreign companies, through funding to protect and promote the industry and through tackling such issues as patents and price controls.

A Fragmented, Vulnerable Market

The Indian market is vulnerable because it is fragmented. At the end of 2008, according to pharma research firm ORG IMS, the top five companies had a combined market share of only 22%. Cipla Ltd. had the largest, having ousted Ranbaxy from the top spot, yet its share was only 5.3%. The top 20 companies had a total market share of about 57%. Globally, the 10 largest companies account for about 40% of sales.

According to Espicom Business Intelligence, India is the world's fourth-largest producer of pharmaceuticals by volume, accounting for around 8% of global production. In value terms, India's production accounts for around 1.5% of the world total, ranking India thirteenth. While there are around 270 large R&D-based pharmaceutical companies in India, including multinationals, government-owned and private companies, there are also around 5,600 smaller licensed generics manufacturers, although in reality only around 3,000 companies are involved in pharmaceutical production. Most small firms do not have their own production facilities, but operate using the spare capacity of other drug manufacturers. That is the fragmented market of pharmaceuticals in India.

The intense competition in a highly fragmented market is posing a great challenge. The stage is set for the next phase of growth accompanied by consolidation. India is one of the most competitive markets in the world, primarily because it is very fragmented. No one enjoys dominance and that is unlikely to change in the near future.

Cost considerations are also driving MNCs' interest. India offers the benefits of low-cost R&D, a domain in which it is estimated to capture a 10% to 20% share of the world's business by 2020 from less than 1% currently. Globally, pharmaceutical companies are shifting their outsourcing activities to Asian markets, with India emerging as one of the most attractive destinations, according to an August 2009 report by the Organization of Pharmaceutical Producers of India (OPPI) and Ernst & Young (E&Y). India is a fast-growing custom manufacturing outsourcing destination with a growth rate of 43% that is three times the global market rate. This is driven by its ability to create a differentiating cost value proposition powered by its lower manufacturing costs, skilled manpower and strong technical capabilities.

The report rated India highest in terms of cost-efficiency attractiveness among six destinations including China, Eastern Europe, Puerto Rico, Singapore and Ireland. India's cost efficiency is driven by its low manufacturing cost, which is only 35% to 40% of the cost of manufacturing in the United States, supported by its low installation and manpower cost. In drug discovery and development services, India is emerging as a hot spot, growing at around 65%. India offers significant cost arbitrage in end-to-end R&D with potential savings of 61% as compared to the United States.

Another E&Y study, developed with the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI), says India enjoys significant cost arbitrage in the conduct of clinical trials, which includes infrastructure, patient recruitment, manpower, data management and processing costs. "The cost of these activities in India is typically 40% to 60% lower than in developed countries and around 10% to 20% lower than in other emerging economies," says the study. At least eight of the top 10 pharma companies internationally are tapping such allied services in India. The sector is growing by 21% annually in India, compared with 7.5% globally.
A Growing Affluent Market

MNCs have another reason to eye India. The FICCI-E&Y study says that high-value drugs from MNCs could produce up to US$8 billion in sales by 2015. The population in India's highest income class is expected to grow to 25 million in 2015 from 10 million today, so more people will be able to afford high-value patented drugs. MNCs are increasingly restructuring their operations with global parents increasing their equity stakes in their Indian affiliates. Companies such as Bristol-Myers Squibb and Merck that had exited the Indian market have staged a reentry. Lifestyle disorders will make people more vulnerable to ailments such as cardiovascular diseases and diabetes. Secondly, medicines will become more affordable to a larger number of people as the size of India's 300 million middle class is rapidly increasing and income levels are also going up.
But the entry of MNCs does not necessarily mean more expensive medicines. It could lead to the introduction of patented drugs for lifestyle diseases. But India will continue to need affordable medicines, particularly for acute ailments. These are typically served by generic medicines which are affordable and, in certain cases, their prices are regulated by the government. While we can expect patented medicines to be launched in India, particularly due to growing confidence in Indian IPR laws, affordable generic medicines will continue to comprise a very significant section of the market.

Pharma takeovers elicit so much attention because health care is of key importance everywhere. Health care and pharmaceuticals will continue to be of strategic interest for the country. The pharmaceutical industry will continue to be watched and followed keenly by the media as well as the government, unlike several other sectors. That is why industries such as advertising and market research have become almost 100% foreign-owned without a murmur, while pharma takeovers have a host of critics.

The criticisms notwithstanding, MNCs obviously are attracted to India. From the Indian point of view, it makes sense to join hands or sell out. Intense competition is one reason. A patent regime established in 2005 that limits the industry's ability to introduce new generic drugs is another. With the increasing need for capital to sustain momentum, a number of Indian pharmaceutical companies will find it difficult to pursue the growth path on their own. Such companies will be ideal candidates to join hands with strong multinational companies.

Indian companies face other problems, too. Exports, mainly of generics, have become an increasingly important business component. But some Western countries are setting up what are perceived as non-tariff barriers. For example, the U.S. Food & Drug Administration has taken action against several companies; early this year, it banned 28 of Ranbaxy's drugs, saying the company had falsified data and test results in approved and pending drug applications. Also, several shipments of generic drugs destined for Latin American countries have been seized in European ports. A Dr. Reddy's consignment of losartan, used to lower blood pressure, was seized in transit to Brazil by Dutch customs officials. The U.S. multinational DuPont holds the patent for losartan in the Netherlands. Several such seizures have occurred that the Indian industry considers illegal because the drugs were in transit and not meant for sale in any European market.

Indian Pharma 'At a Crossroads'

Indian companies are at a crossroads. Because of the increasing competition, winning in commodity generics in developed markets will be difficult. Today, valuations are fantastic. So divest. If you do not divest, you have to invest. But for that you need resources. Ranbaxy and Shantha got very rich valuations, some three to five times sales.
The "rich" valuations raise a different issue: Are MNCs paying too much? Consider what happened to Daiichi after the Ranbaxy purchase. At the time of the acquisition, a leading business magazine wrote in its headline "Japan's Daiichi Sankyo makes Ranbaxy Laboratories an offer it can't refuse." The Singh brothers, Malvinder and Shivinder, sold their 34% stake to the Japanese major for US$2 billion. Daiichi paid a similar sum in an open offer to ordinary shareholders; it now owns 63.9% of the company. At the end of the year, the Japanese company was licking its wounds. It had to write down US$3.84 billion after Ranbaxy shares plunged 66% on the Bombay bourses, in line with the rest of the market. Four years of Daiichi's profits were wiped out. That doesn't seem to have fazed others. Japan's largest and oldest pharma giant, Takeda Pharmaceutical, is keenly eyeing Ahmedabad-based Torrent Pharmaceuticals as a possible acquisition.

Takeda and Daiichi are looking to the future. When the Indian pharma industry itself looks to the future, what does it see? Just a few years ago, Indian companies seemed to be on the takeover trail. The roles have now reversed in the Indian pharma M&A space. In the growth years of 2005 to 2008, companies like Wockhardt, Dr. Reddy's and Ranbaxy were busy shopping abroad to expand their global footprint. In 2007-08 alone, Indian drug companies made 14 acquisitions abroad at a cost of US$1.3 billion. Some deals have gone wrong. Wockhardt is selling off because it borrowed too much to fund acquisitions and ended up with financial problems. Sun Pharma is still fighting a legal battle over its bid for Taro of Israel. The experiences of some others -- Dr. Reddy's with Betapharm of Germany for one -- have not turned out well: The Company has had to write off around US$300 million on account of this German subsidiary.
Is it the end of the Indian pharma MNC? Indian generic MNCs will come up. Sun Pharma is trying. So is Dr. Reddy's. They could become generic MNCs. Companies that have ambitions are not going to give up. This is just a pause.