Mount Merapi continue with series of eruption

The meaning of Mount Merapi is Fire Mountain now days it is justifying their name with continuance of eruption for several weeks. Volcanic gases, bomb and bulging out of lava from the crater to the slopes has seen by the spectators on Wednesday, the blast was three time more intense than it was at 26^th of October, the fiery explosion created new set of casualties. Earlier volcanologists thought that excess energy has released from the previous eruption and now chances of violent eruption is minimum however the Wednesday eruption once again proved that it is not easy to predict what is building up in magma chamber even the needle of the seismograph not giving any clue.

After the several week of devastating eruption that forced more than 70000 people to evacuate their place and get safe shelter under the rain of rocks and debris from the sky. The Mount Merapi has history of devastation in 1930 eruption 1300 people died and dozens of village affected, in 1994 eruption 60 people were killed and in current incident 38 people have died since eruption taken place.

Golden cross ....a golden rule...

Stock markets got another bright sign here: both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 hit a golden cross the week ending 11^th October for the first time in four years due to improvement in real economy although job condition is still gloomy but stocks touching year high due to the optimism of Federal reserve action.

A golden cross is an important technical indicator to ote the sentiments on the street when the .50-day moving average for an index crosses above the 200-day moving average.

The pattern occurs when prices over the shorter term are moving higher at a faster rate than prices over the longer-term. The Dow jone Industrial hits this benchmark on 1^st of October.It's also a bullish sign for the future, as per the charts history.

Historically, the market has performed better following these patterns than if we look at any random one, three or six-month period.Specifically, the average six-month return of the S&P 500 Index following a golden cross was 3.9 percent from 1929 through 2010, while the S&P 500's average six-month return any other time was 3.1 percent, according to Bespoke's research. The research also shows the six-month average return following the golden cross is positive 63 percent of the time.

If we look at the S&P 500 data since 1972, the S&P 500 outperformed its average for the year as well, rising 11.9 percent on average in the year after a golden cross, versus 7.9 percent on average.

For the Nasdaq the six-month results have been positive 83 percent of time following the golden cross since the index began in 1971, with the Nasdaq averaging 8.7 percent in the six months after a golden cross, versus the typical average gain of 4.2 percent as per historical behavior.

If we look at the S&P 500 data since 1972, the S&P 500 outperformed its average for the year as well, rising 11.9 percentage point on an average in the year post the golden cross, versus 7.9 percent on an average.

The reverse of the golden cross is the death cross, which got real attention in july when index were close to it .It is treated as a bearish signal for the market. Since then, the S&P 500 has risen more than 15 percent, it's not unusual for the market to go up following a death cross.

Stock markets got another bright sign here: both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 hit a golden cross the week ending 11^th October for the first time in four years due to improvement in real economy although job condition is still gloomy but stocks touching year high due to the optimism of Federal reserve action.
A golden cross is an important technical indicator to ote the sentiments on the street when the 50-day moving average for an index crosses above the 200-day moving average.

The pattern occurs when prices over the shorter term are moving higher at a faster rate than prices over the longer-term. The Dow jone Industrial hits this benchmark on 1^st of October.It's also a bullish sign for the future, as per the charts history.

Historically, the market has performed better following these patterns than if we look at any random one, three or six-month period.Specifically, the average six-month return of the S&P 500 Index following a golden cross was 3.9 percent from 1929 through 2010, while the S&P 500's average six-month return any other time was 3.1 percent, according to Bespoke's research. The research also shows the six-month average return following the golden cross is positive 63 percent of the time.

If we look at the S&P 500 data since 1972, the S&P 500 outperformed its average for the year as well, rising 11.9 percent on average in the year after a golden cross, versus 7.9 percent on average.

For the Nasdaq the six-month results have been positive 83 percent of time following the golden cross since the index began in 1971, with the Nasdaq averaging 8.7 percent in the six months after a golden cross, versus the typical average gain of 4.2 percent as per historical behavior.

If we look at the S&P 500 data since 1972, the S&P 500 outperformed its average for the year as well, rising 11.9 percentage point on an average in the year post the golden cross, versus 7.9 percent on an average.

The reverse of the golden cross is the death cross, which got real attention in july when index were close to it .It is treated as a bearish signal for the market. Since then, the S&P 500 has risen more than 15 percent, it's not unusual for the market to go up following a death cross.

Bull Market: waiting for the moment of truth.

The recent gung-ho in the Indian stock market reached its peak when Sensex again touched the 20,000 mark. Overseas investors are showing a penchant towards Indian market and pumping money consistently they have infused a record $17.88 billion this amounts Rs 21, 58 crore so far this year so the Stock prices are fuming high and valuation is looking stretched at this point of time .This event has resulted as caution call from all the market pundits because market is looking over heated. Albeit the topic seems quiet clichéd whenever we talk of real economy VS stock market. But it is inevitable to talk about the implications and impact over and again.

Let’s discuss the two facets market vs. the economy. FIIs wave of money has pushed the market towards celebrating figures but for the past few months there has been consistent investment from their sides. Then why such a push this month? Few facts reveal that Indian mutual fund industry and FIIs has been in a betting position in opposite directions.

1. When Sensex jumped from 14,000 to 15,000, FII sold shares (net sales) worth 2372.10 crore while Indian mutual fund companies bought shares worth ` 2891 crore

2. Between 15000 and 16000, FII bought shares worth ` 7307 while Indian mutual funds bought only ` 667 crore.

3. When Sensex moved from 16000 to 18000, FII bought shares worth ` 24,372.3 crore while mutual fund companies sold (net sales) ` 2182.21 crore

4. Between 18000 and 19000, FII bought `7378.2 worth shares while mutual funds sold (net sales) ` 966.2 crore worth of shares

5. Finally, when Sensex jumped from 19000 to 20 000, FII sold (net sales) ` 1281.1 worth of shares while Indian mutual funds bought shares worth ` 1515 crore.

It’s obvious from the above data that Indian MF industry was actually expecting a correction but to their sheer surprise FIIs positive outlook towards Indian market has made them change their exposure strategies. Now they are heftily investing into market to remove the performance hurdles and encash the domestic market opportunities. Hence MF and FIIs together has soared the market .In tandem with market there is a strong appreciation of the rupee as well.

Now let’s have a look on the real economic picture of India. Earlier the current account deficit of Indian was 2% of GDP but it has rose 50 % higher i.e., 3% of GDP. Strong rupee implies good import but discourages export .which results in wider trade deficit. Larger current account deficit can be problematic when foreign investments shrinks and inflows collapse due to some reason. Not only that, foreign market crisis can trigger many other problems of foreign inflows which are always vulnerable.

Although RBI has intervened to curb the liquidity in the market through LAF and increased repo rate n reverse repo rate. It will keep a check by using such monetary policies tools.

Still this bull word creates a situation of quandary for retail investors whether to invest or play caution. Anyways traders will make hay till the sun shines. Till then all eyes waiting for the real moment of truth.

Madhulika vats

Bull Market: waiting for the moment of truth.

The recent gung-ho in the Indian stock market reached its peak when Sensex again touched the 20,000 mark. Overseas investors are showing a penchant towards Indian market and pumping money consistently they have infused a record $17.88 billion this amounts Rs 21, 58 crore so far this year so the Stock prices are fuming high and valuation is looking stretched at this point of time .This event has resulted as caution call from all the market pundits because market is looking over heated. Albeit the topic seems quiet clichéd whenever we talk of real economy VS stock market. But it is inevitable to talk about the implications and impact over and again.

Let’s discuss the two facets market vs. the economy. FIIs wave of money has pushed the market towards celebrating figures but for the past few months there has been consistent investment from their sides. Then why such a push this month? Few facts reveal that Indian mutual fund industry and FIIs has been in a betting position in opposite directions.

1. When Sensex jumped from 14,000 to 15,000, FII sold shares (net sales) worth 2372.10 crore while Indian mutual fund companies bought shares worth ` 2891 crore

2. Between 15000 and 16000, FII bought shares worth ` 7307 while Indian mutual funds bought only ` 667 crore.

3. When Sensex moved from 16000 to 18000, FII bought shares worth ` 24,372.3 crore while mutual fund companies sold (net sales) ` 2182.21 crore

4. Between 18000 and 19000, FII bought `7378.2 worth shares while mutual funds sold (net sales) ` 966.2 crore worth of shares

5. Finally, when Sensex jumped from 19000 to 20 000, FII sold (net sales) ` 1281.1 worth of shares while Indian mutual funds bought shares worth ` 1515 crore.

It’s obvious from the above data that Indian MF industry was actually expecting a correction but to their sheer surprise FIIs positive outlook towards Indian market has made them change their exposure strategies. Now they are heftily investing into market to remove the performance hurdles and encash the domestic market opportunities. Hence MF and FIIs together has soared the market .In tandem with market there is a strong appreciation of the rupee as well.

Now let’s have a look on the real economic picture of India. Earlier the current account deficit of Indian was 2% of GDP but it has rose 50 % higher i.e., 3% of GDP. Strong rupee implies good import but discourages export .which results in wider trade deficit. Larger current account deficit can be problematic when foreign investments shrinks and inflows collapse due to some reason. Not only that, foreign market crisis can trigger many other problems of foreign inflows which are always vulnerable.

Although RBI has intervened to curb the liquidity in the market through LAF and increased repo rate n reverse repo rate. It will keep a check by using such monetary policies tools.

Still this bull word creates a situation of quandary for retail investors whether to invest or play caution. Anyways traders will make hay till the sun shines. Till then all eyes waiting for the real moment of truth.

Madhulika vats