Demographic Transition Theory

Demographic transition theory was put forwarded by  W.S Thompson(1929) and F.W.Notestein who studded the trend of population growth of various countries across the globe and then framed the most acceptable theory of demography which is still relevant.

Demographic transition theory can be used to describe and predict the future population of any area. 

The theory tells us that population of any region changes from high births and high deaths to low births and low deaths as society progresses from rural agrarian and illiterate to urban industrial and literate society. 

These changes occur in stages which are collectively known as the demographic cycle.

He defined several stage of population growth which is as follows.

STAGE-I: The first stage has high fertility and high mortality because people reproduce more to compensate for the deaths due to epidemics and variable food supply. 

The population growth is slow and most of the people are engaged in agriculture where large families are an asset. 

Life expectancy is low; people are mostly illiterate and have low levels of technology. Two hundred years ago all the countries of the world were in this stage.

STAGE-II:  High birth rate and declining death rate and rapid population growth

 STAGE-III:  Fertility remains high in the beginning of this stage but it declines with time. This is accompanied by reduced mortality rate. Improvements in sanitation and health conditions lead to decline in mortality. Because of this gap the net addition to population is high.  

STAGE-IV: In the last stage, both fertility and mortality decline considerably. The population is either stable or grows slowly. The population becomes urbanized, literate and has high technical knowhow and deliberately controls the family size. 

This shows that human beings are extremely flexible and are able to adjust their fertility. In the present day, different countries are at different stages of demographic transition.

STAGE-V:  Birth and death rate almost equal which in time results in zero population growth.